Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.286768 0.349476 0.426245 0.528383 0.662590 0.835618 1.080068e+00
2025-04-27 0.178023 0.235907 0.314823 0.433303 0.612195 0.881907 1.339598e+00
2025-05-04 0.123647 0.175221 0.252006 0.379809 0.598319 0.980236 1.760336e+00
2025-05-11 0.088752 0.132838 0.203447 0.331867 0.577309 1.070467 2.285148e+00
2025-05-18 0.064419 0.100713 0.162382 0.283153 0.537334 1.116852 2.828245e+00
2025-05-25 0.048094 0.077983 0.131379 0.242895 0.498819 1.155679 3.481685e+00
2025-06-01 0.038815 0.065362 0.115347 0.227215 0.509835 1.342107 5.039224e+00
2025-06-08 0.032078 0.055909 0.103008 0.215533 0.527775 1.586416 7.643502e+00
2025-06-15 0.027265 0.049104 0.094336 0.209600 0.561600 1.950057 1.267063e+01
2025-06-22 0.023473 0.043559 0.086991 0.204617 0.598985 2.416458 2.222767e+01
2025-06-29 0.019880 0.037745 0.077680 0.191141 0.601445 2.760330 3.549160e+01
2025-07-06 0.015841 0.030330 0.063120 0.157962 0.510957 2.467642 3.661026e+01
2025-07-13 0.013827 0.027107 0.058230 0.153009 0.536866 3.029894 7.284430e+01
2025-07-20 0.012445 0.025048 0.055759 0.154944 0.598685 4.113353 2.059537e+02
2025-07-27 0.011383 0.023530 0.054341 0.160186 0.687925 5.962661 9.296010e+02
2025-08-03 0.010302 0.021778 0.051891 0.160996 0.760371 8.262146 6.449950e+03
2025-08-10 0.009165 0.019698 0.048047 0.154999 0.788825 10.368806 7.577004e+04
2025-08-17 0.008135 0.017723 0.044077 0.146938 0.797619 12.483029 9.705541e+06
2025-08-24 0.007481 0.016607 0.042427 0.148113 0.882481 18.103574 NaN
2025-08-31 0.006910 0.015613 0.040927 0.149440 0.977907 27.023286 NaN
2025-09-07 0.006446 0.014830 0.039920 0.152803 1.107146 43.768633 NaN
2025-09-14 0.006019 0.014083 0.038863 0.155584 1.246316 73.140513 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005515 0.013045 0.036594 0.150955 1.295574 102.716260 NaN